A comprehensive analysis of the 2025 NBA MVP race, examining Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's lead over Nikola Jokić, with insights on team success, statistical achievements, media sentiment, and historical context.
Drew Coleman
The 2024-25 NBA regular season is winding down, and the MVP race has come into sharp focus. A dynamic duel has emerged between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Nikola Jokić of the Denver Nuggets – with Gilgeous-Alexander currently the odds-on favorite to win his first MVP, ahead of the three-time MVP Jokić. Other stars like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum remain in the conversation, but as long-shot contenders by late March. Below, we break down the leading candidates’ season statistics, team success, key narratives, shifts in odds, and media sentiment shaping this year’s MVP race. We also highlight any late-season pushes or surprises that could influence the final outcome, with comparisons to past MVP scenarios where relevant.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has seized the lead in the 2025 MVP race with a breakout season. The 26-year-old Thunder guard is averaging a league-best 32.8 points per game, along with 6.3 assists, 5.0 rebounds and 1.8 steals. He’s scoring efficiently (52% from the field) and has erupted for numerous high-end performances – including games of 51, 48, 41, and 40 points in March alone. These scoring bursts, combined with his improved playmaking and two-way impact, give Gilgeous-Alexander a rock-solid MVP résumé that few can match.
Team Success: Perhaps the strongest pillar of SGA’s MVP case is the Thunder’s stunning team success. Oklahoma City sits at 60-12, having clinched the West’s #1 seed with a franchise-record-tying 60 wins by March 25. Gilgeous-Alexander is undeniably “the engine” of this young Thunder squad, which boasts the best net rating in the NBA and one of the best records in the league. OKC is 12 games ahead of Denver in the standings as of mid-March, effectively “running away with the West” behind SGA’s leadership. In clutch situations, he’s delivered repeatedly, helping OKC to a league-leading margin of victory when he’s on the floor (+17.5 per 100 possessions). Despite a relatively young supporting cast (only one All-Star teammate and limited contributions from their top draft pick due to injury), Gilgeous-Alexander has made the Thunder a legitimate title contender.
Key Narratives: SGA’s campaign is framed as the rise of a new superstar versus an established MVP juggernaut. He finished second in MVP voting last season (2024) behind Jokić, and many see 2025 as his turn to take the mantle. The storyline resembles past MVP races where a “fresh face” edges out a repeat winner in a close contest – for example, Derrick Rose beating LeBron James in 2011, or Charles Barkley topping Michael Jordan in 1993. Voter fatigue with previous winners works in Gilgeous-Alexander’s favor, as voters often gravitate toward a new MVP narrative when multiple candidates are close. The Thunder’s dramatic leap to the top of the standings further cements that narrative: in the eyes of many, “winning is the only stat that matters” when comparing MVP cases. Gilgeous-Alexander being the best player on the NBA’s best (or second-best) team is an irrefutable argument for his MVP candidacy, even if his individual stats aren’t as historically unique as Jokić’s.
Recent Performances & Moments: In a nationally televised showdown on March 9, Gilgeous-Alexander poured in 40 points to lead OKC in a blowout win over Denver, prompting ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith to declare the MVP race effectively “over” in SGA’s favor after watching him dominate the fourth quarter. Throughout March, he continued to strengthen his case with high-scoring outings and clutch plays. He’s even earned “M-V-P” chants from home crowds, as Thunder fans recognize the historic season he’s having. His blend of “prime James Harden or Kobe Bryant, but hyperefficient” offense while carrying a young team has drawn rave comparisons.
Media Sentiment: Most analysts now view Gilgeous-Alexander as the front-runner. An ESPN straw poll of 100 media insiders in mid-February had SGA in first place on 70 ballots (out of 100), leading the MVP race by a wide margin. He appeared on every ballot (either first or second) in that poll – a testament to how universal his impact is recognized. His MVP case has earned endorsements from legends and pundits alike: Hall of Famer Shaquille O’Neal said “he’s the baddest [expletive] in the league” and lamented that Shai didn’t win MVP last year, confidently asserting that “nobody plays like him” in today’s game. Such praise from an all-time great amplifies the sentiment that Gilgeous-Alexander has ascended to a special level this season. Even so, SGA himself has stayed focused on team goals, and coach Mark Daigneault has downplayed the MVP talk by emphasizing the Thunder’s collective mentality.
MVP Odds: The betting markets reflect Gilgeous-Alexander’s status as the heavy favorite. As of late March, sportsbooks list him around -900 to -1600 odds (roughly 85–90% implied probability) to win MVP. This is a dramatic shift from the preseason, when SGA was a secondary contender (+400) behind favorites like Luka Dončić and Nikola Jokić. His sustained excellence and the Thunder’s dominance caused his odds to steadily shorten throughout the year. Barring a late collapse, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is widely expected to hoist the MVP trophy – which would be the first of his career and the Thunder’s first MVP since Russell Westbrook in 2017.
Nikola Jokić is putting up numbers for the ages in 2024-25, making perhaps the strongest statistical case of any MVP candidate – yet he finds himself in the unusual position of underdog due to context and narrative.
The Denver Nuggets’ superstar center is averaging a triple-double: approximately 29 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists per game on remarkably efficient shooting. As of late March, Jokić is 3rd in the NBA in scoring and rebounding and 2nd in assists, something no player in history has done over a full season. He’s already logged 29 triple-doubles, leading the league by a wide margin, and even recorded the first 30-20-20 game in NBA history (31 points, 21 rebounds, 22 assists in an OT win) – a jaw-dropping feat that underscored his unique all-around brilliance.
Team Performance: Jokić’s Nuggets have been strong, though not on the Thunder’s level this regular season. Denver is on pace for around 50+ wins (third place in the West), a solid record but trailing far behind Oklahoma City (as noted, about 12 games back by mid-March). The team’s relatively slower start and some injuries (including Jokić missing a few games in March with an ankle sprain) have them looking up at the Thunder in the standings. Still, Denver is a contender and the defending NBA champions from 2024, which bolsters Jokić’s narrative as the league’s most consistently dominant force. When Jokić plays, the Nuggets are elite – outscoring opponents by +507 with him on court – and they struggle mightily without him (-206 when he sits). That on/off split projects that Denver would win 50 fewer games without Jokić, illustrating his enormous value to the team. In short, Jokić’s impact on winning is immense, even if his team’s record isn’t #1.
Historical Context: Jokić is no stranger to MVP accolades – he won the award in 2021, 2022, and again in 2024, giving him three MVPs in a four-year span. If he were to win again in 2025, he’d join truly rarefied air: only legends Bill Russell and LeBron James have ever won 4 MVPs in a 5-year stretch. However, history may be working against him as much as for him. Voter fatigue and the reluctance to anoint someone beyond three MVPs are real factors. Jokić narrowly lost the 2023 MVP to Joel Embiid amid chatter that voters didn’t want to give him a third straight (something only Bird, Wilt, and Russell have achieved). This time, voters face the weighty question of putting Jokić in the company of Russell, Wilt, Kareem, and Jordan with four career MVPs. As The Guardian put it, “Not only do voters consider the current season, they also consider the bigger picture of league history” when making these decisions. Jokić’s attempt to win four out of five years has only been done by Russell and LeBron before, so voters may subconsciously lean toward a fresh face (SGA) unless Jokić’s season is undeniably above and beyond.
Objectively, one could argue Jokić is having a season for the ages. He leads the NBA in almost every advanced metric – from Player Efficiency Rating (PER 32.7) to Win Shares and Box Plus/Minus – outpacing even his own prior MVP seasons. He’s scoring a career-high ~29 PPG with absurd efficiency (58% FG, 44% from three) while averaging a triple-double. His offensive repertoire has expanded (hitting 3s at a high clip, dominating in the paint, and dishing 10+ assists in myriad ways). In fact, Denver’s offense scores 125.6 points/100 when Jokić is on the court – the best offensive rating for any player’s minutes in the league. By virtually any value measure, Jokić is at the peak of his powers and “the world’s best player having his best season”. This has led some analysts to insist that statistically, “there is no legitimate argument that [SGA] is having a better season than Jokić”, who is “outdoing all previous versions of himself”.
Media Sentiment: Despite Jokić’s historic production, the media narrative is mixed due to the context. Many pundits acknowledge that on merit, Jokić could easily be MVP – but they also note the reality that voters seem inclined toward Gilgeous-Alexander’s fresh storyline. ESPN’s mid-season straw poll had Jokić in second place, appearing on all 100 ballots (30 first-place votes) but trailing SGA by 122 points. Prominent voices have come to Jokić’s defense. Nuggets coach Michael Malone gave a “blunt assessment” after a big win in early March: he argued that if one looked purely at Player A vs. Player B without names, “the guy who’s averaging a triple-double, top-three in the major categories…wins MVP 10 times out of 10”, pointedly adding that anyone who disagrees is “full of s—”. Malone’s colorful endorsement highlights the sentiment that Jokić’s on-court performance is MVP-worthy, regardless of narrative. Similarly, some analysts (and rival executives privately) feel that Jokić is still the best player alive and might actually deserve the award. CBS Sports reported that many insiders see the race as “so close it’s painful”, essentially 50-50 between Jokić and SGA despite the public narrative. One anonymous MVP voter told CBS, “Are you kidding me? This thing is so close it’s painful.”. These perspectives suggest a bit of a disconnect between Vegas odds (which heavily favor Shai) and the “vibe inside the league”, where Jokić still has a strong contingent of support.
MVP Odds: At sportsbooks, Jokić is a distant second in odds – roughly +475 to +700 by late March (about a 10–15% implied chance). He actually opened the season as a co-favorite (around +400) alongside Luka Dončić, and at various points early on he led the MVP odds. But as Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder surged, Jokić’s odds lengthened. Notably, a brief ankle injury sidelined him for a handful of games in mid-March, which may have hurt his momentum slightly. Still, if any player could overcome the odds late, it’s Jokić – a string of dominant performances down the stretch or a stumble by OKC could sway some voters at the last moment. Short of that, however, it appears that voter fatigue and narrative will leave Jokić’s astounding season as a runner-up in 2025. As The Guardian summarized, “Unless Gilgeous-Alexander incurs an injury or his team falls off a cliff, he will take home the hardware”, despite Jokić’s brilliance.
Beyond the two headliners, a few other stars have built strong seasons – even if their MVP chances are slim as of late March. Here’s a look at Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, and some surprising names that entered (and exited) the MVP conversation:
Giannis Antetokounmpo – Strong Season Amid Challenges: The two-time MVP from Milwaukee started the season as a top-tier favorite for a third MVP (+850 opening odds) and even had stretches where he looked poised to challenge the frontrunners. In late November, Giannis put up a sizzling run (32.5 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 7.3 APG over a week) that earned him Player of the Week and lifted the Bucks to the NBA Cup tournament championship. At one point, that surge briefly propelled him into the top 3 of the MVP race. For the season, Antetokounmpo has been his usual dominant self – around 30 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists per game on 60% shooting – combining powerful scoring with elite defense. However, several factors have hampered Giannis’s MVP case. He has missed some games due to minor injuries (and had to be mindful of the new 65-game minimum for awards), and the Bucks have underperformed relative to expectations. Milwaukee is hovering in the middle of the East playoff pack (around the 5th seed at 40–31), far behind teams like Cleveland (58–14) and Boston. Even with the addition of Damian Lillard, the Bucks have been inconsistent, which hurts Giannis’s MVP narrative. By late March, his MVP odds have plummeted to extreme long-shot territory (often +50000, or 500-1). In essence, Antetokounmpo’s individual excellence isn’t translating to a top record this year, and voters typically prioritize winning. Giannis himself has downplayed MVP talk, famously stating that a championship means more to him than individual awards. At this point, he’s likely to receive a handful of down-ballot MVP votes (for third or fourth place) but is not expected to win. Still, his season remains All-NBA caliber, and if not for the unprecedented performances of SGA and Jokić, Antetokounmpo’s numbers could have made him a serious contender in a typical year.
Jayson Tatum – Leading Boston’s Title Contender: Tatum has been the steady force for the 53-19 Boston Celtics, who sit near the top of the Eastern Conference. He is averaging about 27.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game, leading Boston in all three categories. Those stats underscore Tatum’s evolution into a well-rounded star who impacts the game in multiple ways. He’s also had big moments – clutch shots and 40+ point nights – that remind everyone of his MVP-level talent. However, a couple of things have kept Tatum on the outside looking in for MVP: first, his numbers, while superb, are a notch below the eye-popping figures of the top candidates (for example, he’s ~6 points per game behind SGA in scoring). Second, the Celtics have a more balanced roster; with fellow All-Star Jaylen Brown (and a strong supporting cast), voters may not view Tatum as carrying as heavy a load as others. Boston’s performance, though excellent, has them second in the East rather than league-best, which historically makes it harder for a player to win MVP unless their stats are indisputable. Tatum did gain some recognition in MVP chatter – he was 4th in the latest ESPN straw poll and has been mentioned by analysts as a fringe candidate. He also dealt with a minor ankle injury in late March (leaving a game on March 21 but avoiding serious issue), though it hasn’t significantly derailed his season. In the end, Tatum’s campaign resembles those of past superstar seasons that were worthy of mention but not quite enough to capture the award. He’s likely to earn a top-five MVP finish, which would reflect his status as one of the league’s elite, even if he doesn’t add the trophy to his case this year.
Donovan Mitchell and Other Surprises: One of the biggest surprises of the season has been the Cleveland Cavaliers emerging with one of the league’s best records. By mid-March, Cleveland was 53-10 – actually holding the NBA’s top record slightly ahead of OKC at that time – and they finished March near the high-50s in wins. Donovan Mitchell, the Cavs’ star guard, thus entered the periphery of the MVP race. He was 5th in the ESPN straw poll and received a few third-place votes, reflecting the credit he’s earned for Cleveland’s success. Mitchell has had an outstanding season (around 27–28 PPG with strong efficiency and defense) while guiding a young Cavs team to new heights. However, similar to Tatum, his stats haven’t been as headline-grabbing as the top two, and the MVP discussion coalesced around SGA vs. Jokić before Mitchell could become a serious top-three contender. Nonetheless, Mitchell’s play and the Cavaliers’ dominance were a notable storyline – he may end up on some MVP ballots and has solidified his status as an All-NBA performer this year.
Several other players had moments of MVP buzz or garnered down-ballot consideration: Luka Dončić opened the season as a popular MVP pick (having finished third in 2024 and coming off a Finals run), but an early-season calf injury and a blockbuster midseason trade to the Lakers took him out of the running entirely. Luka’s case fizzled as he failed to meet the 65-game eligibility and had to adjust to a new team. Joel Embiid, the reigning 2023 MVP, also fell out of the race – the 76ers did not keep pace with the top teams, and Embiid missed games, so he wasn’t a top-five candidate by season’s end. Young stars like Anthony Edwards (who led a resurgent Timberwolves team) and Jalen Brunson (piloting the Knicks to a strong record) each earned a bit of MVP chatter and even a few token votes in media polls, reflecting their leap in performance. And remarkably, Victor Wembanyama, the hyped rookie in San Antonio, showed flashes of brilliance that had some dreaming of future MVPs – he even appeared in the “others receiving votes” category of one straw poll – but of course, he wasn’t a serious contender this year. These storylines added depth to the MVP conversation, but ultimately none of these dark horses could crack the top tier of candidates.
As of late March 2025, oddsmakers and analysts largely favor Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win the MVP award, with Nikola Jokić a clear (but worthy) second choice. Major betting outlets have SGA as a -850 to -900 favorite and Jokić around +500 to +700. This represents a significant shift from earlier in the season – for instance, back in December and January, the odds and public sentiment were more split, and Jokić had been neck-and-neck or even ahead in some discussions. But Gilgeous-Alexander’s sustained excellence and the Thunder’s relentless winning swung the odds firmly in his favor. Media sentiment followed a similar trajectory: an ESPN straw poll in February signaled SGA as the frontrunner, and by March many prominent voices were framing the race as Shai’s to lose.
That said, there is a sense among basketball insiders that the race remained incredibly close in quality, if not in voting likelihood. The final weeks of the season could still produce subtle shifts – for example, if Jokić returns from injury to deliver more absurd stat lines (triple-doubles or another record performance) and the Thunder hit a rough patch, some voters might reconsider. Additionally, voters conscious of not disrespecting Jokić’s historic year could tighten the vote totals even if SGA is expected to win. In the words of one executive, “The general narrative says it’s Shai, but those of us who vote know how excruciating this decision will be”.
As it stands, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is poised to become the 2025 NBA MVP, likely capping off one of the most impressive breakout MVP campaigns in recent memory. If he wins, it would mark the third consecutive year an MVP is a first-time winner (following Nikola Jokić’s earlier awards and Joel Embiid in 2023), highlighting the league’s evolving landscape. SGA’s rise from All-Star to MVP mirrors past leaps by players like Derrick Rose or Giannis Antetokounmpo, and at 26 years old, he’d be entering his prime as an MVP – a harbinger of more to come. On the other hand, if a late twist occurs and Jokić is announced as the winner, it would cement his place among the all-time greats with a fourth MVP and validate the analytical case that he was the NBA’s most dominant force yet again.
Either outcome would carry its own legacy, but what’s undeniable is that the 2024-25 season has featured an MVP race for the ages. We’ve seen a new superstar ascend, an established legend reach new heights, and numerous other stars push their way into the conversation. As the regular season concludes and official ballots are cast, the consensus is that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s combination of gaudy stats, top-tier team success, and compelling narrative will earn him the Maurice Podoloff Trophy. Jokić, meanwhile, has reminded everyone that voter fatigue is perhaps the only thing that can stop him, as his on-court performance remains virtually unmatched. And players like Giannis, Tatum, and Mitchell ensured that the MVP discussion was rich with storylines beyond just two names.
In the end, the 2025 NBA MVP race encapsulates what makes the award special: incredible individual excellence, elevating team success, historic feats, and the ever-present debate over how to define “Most Valuable.” Late March odds and sentiment say this is Gilgeous-Alexander’s year to be crowned MVP – a fitting reward for leading a young team to greatness and electrifying the league in the process. All that’s left is to see if the official voting in April aligns with the season-long narrative, or if there’s one last surprise in a race that has kept fans and analysts riveted all year long.
