Ryan Brasier's 1.04 ERA is on the line as the Cubs host the Royals on July 21, 2025. With prospect Owen Caissie raking, will the Cubs make a trade?
StatPro MLB Beat Reporter
Welcome to a pivotal Monday at Wrigley Field. On the surface, tonight's 8:05 PM matchup against the Kansas City Royals is a classic test: the 59-40 Cubs, dominant at home, send the seemingly unhittable Ryan Brasier and his minuscule 1.04 ERA to the mound. But beneath the surface, a much bigger story is brewing, one that could define the team's trajectory for years to come as the trade deadline rapidly approaches.
While the big league club prepared for the Royals, top prospect Owen Caissie went 3-for-5 with a home run and three RBIs for Triple-A Iowa, practically screaming his readiness for the next level.
Tonight's game at the Friendly Confines has all the makings of a classic Cubs win. They're a stellar 32-17 at home and favored (-141) against the 48-52 Royals. The main attraction is starter Ryan Brasier, whose 1.04 ERA continues to defy all expectations. He'll face Royals lefty Noah Cameron in a nationally televised game on MLBN. With young bats like Moisés Ballesteros and Owen Caissie already making an impact in the majors, the lineup has a fresh, potent feel. A win tonight would continue to solidify their standing as a serious contender.
As Brasier prepared for his start, the Cubs' number one prospect, Owen Caissie, was busy making a statement in Triple-A. His 3-for-5 night, complete with a homer and three RBIs, is just the latest in a torrid stretch that also saw Trey Cowles add a double and two runs. Caissie is forcing the front office's hand. Do they call him up to bolster the outfield, or is his skyrocketing value making him the perfect trade chip? With the Cubs' farm system trending downward to No. 16 overall after graduating several key players, trading a top-100 prospect like Caissie would be a significant move.
The dilemma over Caissie is a symptom of the farm system's current state. While still boasting top-heavy talent with five players in MLB Pipeline's Top 100—including Caissie, Moisés Ballesteros, and Kevin Alcántara—the depth has thinned. The graduation of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Cade Horton has left a void. This makes every remaining top prospect incredibly valuable, both for the Cubs' future and as trade currency. Rumors are swirling that one of Caissie or Alcántara could be moved, with James Triantos also being a name to watch. The system will look very different in a few weeks, but new blood like draftee Ethan Conrad (now No. 7) and rising star Jefferson Rojas offer hope for the future.
So as you tune into the game tonight, watch more than just the box score. Watch a team at a crossroads. Every dominant inning from Brasier increases the pressure to 'go for it,' while every monster home run from Caissie in Iowa complicates the path forward. The next ten days will be fascinating, not just for the games played, but for the franchise-altering decisions that will be made.
