Cubs fall to Cardinals 8-7 on June 25, 2025, for their third straight one-run loss. Despite Nico Hoerner's first HR, late-game struggles continue. Recap.
StatPro MLB Beat Reporter
If you're a Cubs fan feeling a frustrating sense of déjà vu, you're not alone. For the third straight game, the North Siders found themselves on the wrong side of a one-run decision, falling 8-7 to the rival St. Louis Cardinals in a game that felt agonizingly winnable. It's a painful trend of being just good enough to compete, but not sharp enough to close the deal.
The loss marked the Cubs' third consecutive one-run defeat, with starting pitchers allowing eight runs in back-to-back games.
The script for Tuesday's loss at Busch Stadium was a familiar one. Starting pitching put the team in an early hole, with Jameson Taillon getting tagged for eight runs on eight hits in just four innings. Yet, the offense battled back relentlessly. Nico Hoerner finally launched his first home run of the season as part of a three-hit, one-steal performance. Seiya Suzuki and Tucker Barnhart also chipped in with three hits apiece, proving the bats were alive. But the story, once again, came down to execution. The Cubs had the tying run on third base twice in the final three frames and couldn't cash in. The most glaring moment came in the seventh, when Pete Crow-Armstrong's bunt attempt with runners on the corners turned into a rally-killing out, followed by a Dansby Swanson fly out to end the threat. It's these small moments and mental mistakes that are turning wins into losses.
Losing three straight to your biggest rival by a single run each time is enough to make any fan reach for the panic button. But let's take a deep breath and look at the standings. Despite this brutal skid, the Cubs still woke up this morning with a 46-32 record, sitting firmly in first place in the NL Central. The advanced numbers still love this team, too. As of today, Chicago's odds to make the postseason are a robust 88.0%, with a 10.5% chance to win the World Series. This isn't a team in freefall; it's a good team going through a very frustrating, poorly timed slump.
If the recent starting pitching woes or execution issues continue, the front office has plenty of ammunition for a mid-season shake-up. Even after dealing top prospect Cam Smith to land superstar Kyle Tucker, the Cubs' farm system remains one of the best in baseball. The organization still boasts an incredible seven Top 100 prospects, six of whom are position players. Farm director Jason Kanzler recently noted the significant depth at Double-A and Triple-A. These players aren't just future assets; they represent potential trade chips for a frontline starter or immediate reinforcements who could provide a spark for the big-league club down the stretch.
These one-run losses are gut punches, pure and simple. But they aren't knockout blows. The Cubs are still the team to beat in the division, with an offense that can fight back and a farm system that provides a safety net for the trade deadline. The challenge now for manager Craig Counsell and his squad is to clean up the mental errors and find a way to execute in the clutch. The talent is there, the position is secure for now, but they must start turning these agonizing 'almosts' into decisive victories.
