ESPN analyst Aaron Schatz tabs the Patriots as a 2025 dark horse. Can coach Mike Vrabel and QB Drake Maye lead a 'worst to first' charge in the AFC East?
StatPro NFL Beat Reporter
Just when you thought the national media was done with the Patriots, a spark of optimism arrives just in time for the Fourth of July fireworks. ESPN's Aaron Schatz has identified New England as a potential 'worst to first' candidate in the AFC East, a bold prediction that hinges on the leadership of new head coach Mike Vrabel, the development of second-year QB Drake Maye, and one of the league's most favorable schedules.
ESPN's DVOA-based projections give New England a 14% chance to win the division and a 33.9% chance to make the playoffs.
The foundation for this surprising forecast is the team's 2025 schedule, which was officially announced Thursday. Ranking as the 28th toughest in the league based on projected opponent strength, the slate gives the Patriots a tangible opportunity to build momentum. The schedule also features three primetime games, signaling that the league still sees value in the New England market. While the Buffalo Bills remain the heavy favorites, Schatz's DVOA model suggests the Patriots' ceiling is far higher than many believed after last season's struggles.
This isn't the same old Patriots roster. The offseason has been defined by a clear shift under Mike Vrabel towards youth and speed. While big names haven't dominated the headlines, the team is building a new identity from the ground up. Undrafted rookie receiver Efton Chism III is already turning heads and represents the kind of hungry, high-upside player the new regime is targeting. Whispers of a potential trade for Commanders star Terry McLaurin also persist, indicating the front office isn't done adding pieces. The focus is on competition and a roster that fits Vrabel's aggressive style.
For any turnaround to happen, the Patriots will need their established stars to lead the way. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez is poised to become a true shutdown corner after allowing just two touchdowns in 2024. On offense, the reliable duo of tight end Hunter Henry (66 catches) and receiver DeMario Douglas (63 catches) will be crucial safety valves for Drake Maye. The team also received a dose of good news on the injury front. Linebacker Jahlani Tavai, who led the team with 115 tackles last season, is expected to be ready for training camp after a calf injury scare during OTAs. While he'll miss minicamp, having him back to anchor the defense is a significant relief, especially as he fights for his spot in a new defensive scheme.
While the 'worst to first' talk and a favorable schedule are great for offseason morale, the real work begins when training camp opens later this month. All eyes will be on Drake Maye's command of the offense and how Mike Vrabel's new culture translates to the practice field. The pieces are in place for a surprising season, but now it's time to prove the projections right.
